Tuesday, November 28

76ers vs. Heat prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 best bets from model on 86-58 run

It’s desperation time for the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2022 NBA playoffs as they enter Game 3 against the Miami Heat on Friday night in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Sixers return home in an 0-2 series hole. Star center Joel Embiid (facial injury) is listed as doubtful, though that is an upgrade from originally being listed as out, giving some optimism that he could play if shootaround goes well. Miami has dominated the first two games, winning by an average of 15 points and covering a -7.5 spread both times. Kyle Lowry (hamstring), Tyler Herro (ankle) and P.J. Tucker (calf) are among the players the Heat list as questionable. 

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Miami is the 1.5-point road favorite in the latest Heat vs. 76ers odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total points is set at 210.5. Before locking in any Heat vs. 76ers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:

  • Heat vs. 76ers spread: Heat -1.5
  • Heat vs. 76ers over-under: 210.5 points
  • Heat vs. 76ers money line: Heat -120, 76ers +100
  • MIA: The Heat are 5-2 against the spread in playoff games
  • PHI: The 76ers are 4-4 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has dominated the series thus far, and its success against the spread is a season-long trend. The Heat are 51-38 against the spread this year, with impressive ATS marks on the road (26-17), after a day off (45-30) and against Philadelphia (4-2). They’re 5-2 total ATS during the NBA playoffs 2022.

Jimmy Butler is red-hot in the postseason, averaging 26.5 points per game thus far. Bam Adebayo is averaging 15.6 points and 8.7 boards per game in the postseason, while Herro is averaging 15.3 points. Miami has been doing it all this series without Lowry, who appears to have a chance to return on Friday, giving backers even more reason to take Miami against this one-possession spread. 

Why the 76ers can cover

Philadelphia has clear strengths on offense, and the Sixers are playing well on that end of the floor in the playoffs. During the regular season, the 76ers ranked in the top four of the NBA in free throw creation, free throw accuracy, turnovers per game and live-ball turnovers per game. In the postseason, Philadelphia is scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions, an elite figure, and the 76ers are even better at home, scoring more than 1.21 points per possession in playoff home games. The 76ers are shooting 47.6 percent from the floor and 36.2 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs, and the free throw line continues to be an area of strength. 

Philadelphia has elite marks in free throw creation (24.3 attempts per game) and free throw accuracy (85.6 percent) in the playoffs. On the other end, the 76ers are stingy in defending the 3-point line, allowing the opposition to make only 11.4 triples per game in the regular season. Miami also ranked No. 28 in the NBA in both turnovers per game and points in the paint per game in 2021-22, with Philadelphia landing above the NBA average in assists allowed and free throw attempts allowed.

How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 215 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Heat vs. 76ers picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 76ers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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