Tuesday, February 27

76ers vs. Heat prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets by model on 86-58 run

The Miami Heat host the Philadelphia 76ers for a pivotal Game 5 matchup on Tuesday evening. After winning the first two games of the series at home, the Heat dropped two straight games on the road against the 76ers. That evened the series, with both teams aiming to take control with a Game 5 win. 

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as 2.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 209.5 in the latest 76ers vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. 76ers picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the fourth full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on 76ers vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for 76ers vs. Heat:

  • 76ers vs. Heat spread: Heat -2.5
  • 76ers vs. Heat over-under: 209.5 points 
  • 76ers vs. Heat money line: Heat -145, 76ers +125
  • PHI: The 76ers are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games 
  • MIA: The Heat are 5-4 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Why the 76ers can cover

Philadelphia’s offense is flying high in the postseason. The 76ers are scoring 115.5 points per 100 possessions, a figure that would have ranked in the top three of the league during the regular season. Philadelphia is shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 38.7 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs, both of which are tremendous marks. The 76ers are also excellent at using the free throw line to their advantage, both in the regular season and through the playoffs. In 2021-22, Philadelphia ranked in the top three of the NBA in free throw attempts (23.8 per game) and free throw accuracy (82.1 percent). In the playoffs, those numbers have jumped to 25.0 attempts per game and an accuracy mark of 84.4 percent. 

The 76ers have three proven scoring options in Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey, with Maxey experiencing a playoff breakout in averaging 22.0 points per game on 51 percent shooting. Defensively, Philadelphia is also limiting opponents to less than 1.1 points per possession in the playoffs, and the Heat are shooting only 44.1 percent from the field and 28.5 percent from 3-point range in the series.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s offense is excellent in key areas. The Heat finished the NBA’s regular season as the best 3-point shooting team in the league, making nearly 38 percent of attempts. Miami also ranked in the top eight of the league in 3-pointers (13.6 per game), free throw accuracy (80.8 percent), assists (25.5 per game), and assist rate (64.4 percent), with intriguing numbers on the offensive glass. Miami was in the top 10 of the NBA in offensive rebound rate (27.8 percent) during the regular season, and the Heat are securing 30.6 percent of missed shots during the playoffs. 

Jimmy Butler is an elite creator, averaging 29.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game in the playoffs, and he is flanked by prolific secondary options including Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, and Tyler Herro. Miami is also playing extremely well on defense, ranking No. 2 in the NBA playoffs in defensive efficiency, and that comes after a regular season in which the Heat finished in the top six of the NBA in defensive rating, 3-point defense and field goal percentage allowed.

How to make 76ers vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 212 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins 76ers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 76ers vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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