Friday, February 23

Mavericks vs. Suns prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets by model on 86-58 run

The Phoenix Suns look to regain momentum against the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night. Phoenix won the first two games of the best-of-seven second round clash, only to see Dallas win the next two contests at home. As the No. 1 seed, Phoenix hosts Game 5 in what should be a wild atmosphere in support of the home team. Torrey Craig (elbow) is listed as probable for the Suns, with Dario Saric (knee) ruled out. Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) is out for the Mavericks.

Tip-off is at 10 p.m. ET in Phoenix. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Suns as six-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213 in the latest Mavericks vs. Suns odds. Before you make any Suns vs. Mavericks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the fourth full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Suns, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Suns vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Suns spread: Suns -6
  • Mavericks vs. Suns over-under: 213 points
  • Mavericks vs. Suns money line: Suns -260, Mavericks +210
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • PHX: The Suns are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has an elite offensive engine in Luka Doncic, and the Mavericks are dynamic on that end of the floor. The Mavericks are scoring more than 1.15 points per possession in the 2022 NBA playoffs, leading the postseason by committing only 9.7 turnovers per game. Dallas averages 2.04 assists for every turnover, and the Mavericks are connecting on 38.4 percent of 3-point attempts. Doncic is the leading scorer in the postseason, averaging 31.3 points per game, and he adds 9.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists per contest.

As a team, the Mavericks finished in the top five of the NBA in turnovers (12.5 per game) and two-point shooting (54.8 percent) during the regular season, with no signs of slowing down. On defense, Dallas is holding playoff opponents to 33.3 percent shooting from 3-point range, and the Mavericks led the NBA in 3-pointers allowed (10.9 per game) during the regular season. Dallas was No. 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency in 2021-22, yielding only 1.09 points per possession, and the Mavericks ranked in the top 10 of the league in free throw prevention, assist prevention, and defensive rebound rate.

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix’s offense is in a groove during the postseason. The Suns are scoring 118.7 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, a figure that would have led the NBA by a substantial margin during the regular season. Phoenix is averaging 26.6 assists per game, also a top-tier mark, and the Suns are averaging 2.09 assists per turnover. The Suns are shooting at a high level, as noted by a 61.3 percent true shooting mark, and Phoenix is leading the NBA Playoffs with a 51.9 percent field goal shooting mark. 

The Suns were the best team in the NBA this season, leading the league in win-loss record and net rating, and Phoenix also led the league in field goal percentage at 48.5 percent. Phoenix’s guards are elite, with Devin Booker averaging 26.8 points per game and Chris Paul leading the NBA with 10.8 assists per game during the regular season. Dallas is the worst rebounding team in the NBA playoffs, securing fewer than 46 percent of all available rebounds, and the Suns ranked in the top five of the league in points per possession, two-point shooting, assists, assist-to-turnover ratio, turnover rate, and fast break points during the regular season.

How to make Suns vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 227 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Suns vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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