Thursday, February 2

Warriors vs. Grizzlies prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 bets from model on 86-58 run

Chase Center hosts Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals on Saturday evening as the 2022 NBA playoffs continue. The Golden State Warriors take on the Memphis Grizzlies, with the series knotted at 1-1. The first two games were both highly competitive, with Golden State winning the opener and Memphis returning the favor in Game 2. Gary Payton II (elbow) and Andre Iguodala (back) are out for the Warriors. Dillon Brooks (suspension) and Santi Aldama (knee) are out for the Grizzlies.

Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as the 7.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 225.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds. Before locking in any Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Grizzlies, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Grizzlies vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies spread: Warriors -7.5
  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies over-under: 225.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies money line: Warriors -300, Grizzlies +240
  • MEM: The Grizzlies are 5-3 against the spread in playoff games
  • GSW: The Warriors are 3-4 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Why the Grizzlies can cover

With Ja Morant at the helm, the Grizzlies are impressive on offense. Morant is averaging 40.5 points, 9.0 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game in the series, and Memphis ranked in the top five of the NBA in offensive rating during the regular season. Memphis led the NBA in offensive rebound rate, second-chance points, fast break points and points in the paint in 2021-22, and the Grizzlies are leading the NBA playoffs 2022 with 29.9 free throw attempts per game.

In the playoffs, Memphis is also grabbing more than 30 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass, with Golden State struggling to a 67.2 percent defensive rebound rate that is well below-average. On the defensive end, Memphis is holding opponents to 105.9 points per 100 possessions in playoff games, leading the NBA playoffs in turnover creation (17.8 per game) and steals (9.1 per game). The Warriors finished second-to-last in the NBA in turnover prevention on offense during the regular season, and the Grizzlies also led the regular season in both steals and blocks.

Why the Warriors can cover

Though most of the attention is on Steph Curry and Golden State’s offense, the Warriors are also elite on defense. The Warriors finished the regular season with the No. 2 defensive rating in the NBA, allowing only 106.6 points per 100 possessions, and Golden State was in the top three in field goal percentage allowed, 2-point percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. Opponents produced only 22.9 assists per game against Golden State, second-fewest in the NBA, and the Warriors ranked in the NBA’s top tier in both turnover creation and steals. 

Golden State is forcing 16.1 turnovers per game on defense in the playoffs, and the team’s offense is also playing extremely well. The Warriors have the No. 2 offensive rating in the NBA playoffs, scoring more than 1.17 points per possession. Golden State leads the playoffs in assists per game (28.7) and assist percentage (68.1 percent) and the Warriors have a 60.1 percent true shooting mark and a 28.0 percent offensive rebound rate.

How to make Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s Warriors vs. Grizzlies picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Grizzlies vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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